What is the safest scenario to plan with?

For most users, P75 is a prudent baseline and P90 is a stress-test safety scenario.

Does the calculator include inflation, taxes, and fees?

Yes. The simulator models inflation, taxes, expense ratio, growth volatility, and scenario percentiles from Monte Carlo runs.

Should I use gross yield or net yield for planning?

Plan using net yield after taxes and fees. Gross yield can materially underestimate required capital.

Dividend Income Target Calculator for FIRE | Monte Carlo Capital Planner

Income target

Desired monthly income ?The monthly after-tax income you want to receive from your dividend portfolio.

€

Time horizon (years) ?Number of years to simulate. Longer horizons compound uncertainty, widening the gap between pessimistic and optimistic outcomes.

Currency

Monthly savings (optional) ?If you are still accumulating capital, enter your monthly savings. The simulator will estimate how much your savings will grow and subtract it from the capital needed.

€

Market parameters

Dividend Yield ?Annual dividend income as a % of portfolio value. Example: 2.5% on €100k = €2,500/year gross. 2.5%

Annual growth ?Expected yearly increase in dividends. Quality companies historically grow dividends 3–9% per year. 5.0%

Tax rate ?Tax applied to dividends. Varies by country: Italy 26%, USA 15%, UK 8.75%, France 30%. 15.0%

Growth volatility ?Year-to-year unpredictability of dividend growth. Higher = more uncertainty and wider outcome ranges. 3.0%

Inflation rate ?Annual inflation adjusts your income target upward each year to maintain purchasing power. 1.5%

Expense ratio ?Annual management fees charged by ETFs/funds. Deducted from gross yield. Typical: 0.1–0.7%. 0.20%

Monte Carlo simulations ?Number of random scenarios generated. More simulations = more reliable statistics, but slightly slower. 10,000

Estimated required capital (median)

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to generate — per month

Projected savings

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→

Additional capital needed

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Gross yield

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Net yield (after tax & fees)

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Real return (after inflation)

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Estimated annual taxes

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Annual net income

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Monthly net income

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▲ Very favorable (P10)

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top 10% most favorable outcomes

◇ Favorable (P25)

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favorable but realistic scenario

◆ Central (P50)

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most likely baseline scenario

◇ Prudent (P75)

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prudence-focused planning scenario

▼ Safety planning (P90)

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use this for safer planning buffers

How to read scenarios

P50 Central

Useful baseline, but not conservative enough as a sole retirement target.

P75 Prudent

Recommended planning anchor for most users who want stronger downside protection.

P90 Safety

Stress-test scenario to evaluate resilience in adverse market conditions.

Simulation distribution — required capital at horizon

Simulation distribution histogram (print snapshot)

Dividend income growth schedule — expected (using P50 capital: —)

Year	Gross / month	Net / month	Coverage	Net yield

Uses your inputs (yield, growth, tax, fees, inflation, horizon). “Expected” path applies the mean dividend growth each year (no volatility).

Real instruments aligned with your current simulation

Recommendations adapt to growth, expected net yield, volatility, and required capital using a neutral and transparent ranking model.

For illustrative purposes only. This does not constitute financial advice.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.